{"id":3725,"date":"2026-10-03T18:14:58","date_gmt":"2026-10-03T18:14:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tdmm.io\/insights\/?p=3725"},"modified":"2026-10-03T18:26:19","modified_gmt":"2026-10-03T18:26:19","slug":"why-token-launches-fail-after-tge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tdmm.io\/insights\/blog\/why-token-launches-fail-after-tge\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Token Launches Fail After TGE: What 423 New Listings Show, and the Post-TGE Playbook"},"content":{"rendered":"
Disclosure: TDMM is a CEX and DEX market maker that works with token projects before and after TGE. We publish our method and data, and we say plainly what market making cannot fix.<\/i><\/p>\n
The short answer<\/b><\/h2>\n
Token launches fail after TGE because most are priced for perfection, carry a visible supply overhang, hand tokens to holders who were paid to sell, and plan liquidity for listing day rather than the ninety days that follow. TDMM tracked 423 tokens that began trading on Gate since 1 January 2025: 81.1% were below their listing-day close at day 90, with a median fall of 55.5%, and volume had dropped to 16.4% of listing-day levels by day 30. Tokens launched below $100 million FDV held their price three times as often as those launched above $1 billion. The failures are mostly structural, set before TGE, which is why the fix starts before TGE too.<\/p>\n
Key takeaways<\/b><\/h2>\n
\n
The base rate is poor and consistent.<\/b> Memento Research found 84.7% of 118 TGEs in 2025 below their launch valuation. CryptoRank found 93% of 113 tokens launched from 2024 to 2026 that reached a $100 million market cap below their TGE price. TDMM\u2019s own cohort of 423 Gate listings had 18.9% above the listing-day close at day 90 and 10.6% at day 365.<\/li>\n
The damage starts in week one.<\/b> The median token set its 90-day closing high on day 3, and 59.1% set it within the first seven days. 28.7% never closed higher than on listing day.<\/li>\n
The first week predicts the quarter.<\/b> Tokens above their listing price at day 7 were above it at day 90 35.8% of the time. Tokens below it at day 7 recovered only 10.6% of the time. Tokens down more than 30% after one week recovered 5.4% of the time.<\/li>\n
Launch valuation matters most.<\/b> Tokens launched under $100 million FDV were above their listing price at day 90 31.5% of the time; tokens launched at $1 billion or more, 10.0%. The gap is 21.5 percentage points, with a 95% bootstrap interval of 8.5 to 34.4.<\/li>\n
Liquidity is planned for the wrong day.<\/b> Median daily volume fell to 55.5% of listing day by day 7, 16.4% by day 30 and 8.8% by day 90. On 3 October 2026, 76.8% of these tokens held under $10,000 within 2% of the price on their thinner side.<\/li>\n
Supply arrives in ways the market can see.<\/b> Keyrock found 8 of 62 airdrops in 2024 positive after 90 days, and 90% of more than 16,000 unlocks put pressure on price. Delphi Digital found 78% to 94% of airdrop recipients sold most of their allocation within 90 days.<\/li>\n
Market makers can make a launch worse.<\/b> Movement\u2019s MOVE token lost its market maker after 66 million MOVE were sold the day after listing. Binance\u2019s March 2026 guidelines now ask issuers to disclose their market maker and ban profit-sharing deals.<\/li>\n
What works is structural, not cosmetic.<\/b> A realistic launch valuation, staggered and published unlocks, distribution tied to real use, depth sized for 90 days, a disclosable contract with spread, depth and uptime per venue, and one reference price across CEX books and DEX pools.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
Nine numbers behind post-TGE failure. Sources as dated in the panel.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
What does it mean for a token launch to fail after TGE?<\/b><\/h2>\n
A token generation event (TGE) is the moment a token is created and first becomes transferable and tradable. A launch fails after TGE when the token cannot hold a market at or near the price it launched at, and the reasons are structural rather than a bad week for crypto. In practice there are four ways to fail, and they tend to arrive in sequence.<\/p>\n
\n\n
\n
\n
Failure type<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
What it looks like<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
How to measure it<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
Typical timing<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
\n
Price failure<\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
The token trades well below its listing price and keeps falling<\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
Price against the listing-day close at day 7, 30 and 90<\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
First week to first quarter<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
\n
Liquidity failure<\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
Volume collapses, books thin out, small orders move the price<\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
Daily volume against listing day; depth within 2% on each side<\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
Day 7 to day 30<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
\n
Trust failure<\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
Holders stop believing the supply story or the team<\/p>\n<\/td>\n
Any time, often around unlocks<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
\n
Survival failure<\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
The token stops trading or is delisted<\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
Trading status on exchanges and DEXs<\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
Months 6 to 18<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
A price below the listing price is not by itself a failure. Markets reprice, and a token that settles 20% below a frothy first day with a healthy two-sided market has launched well. The pattern this article examines is different: a fall that starts within days, deepens for months, and comes with volume and depth draining away at the same time.<\/p>\n
How often do token launches fail after TGE? The independent evidence<\/b><\/h2>\n
Every independent dataset published on recent launches tells the same story, even though each uses its own sample and reference point.<\/p>\n
Independent studies agree on the base rate. Sources: CryptoRank, Memento Research, Keyrock and TDMM, as dated in the chart.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
<\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b>Memento Research<\/b> tracked 118 token generation events in 2025, with data as of 20 December 2025. It found 100 of them, or 84.7%, trading below their TGE valuation, with the median token down 71% in fully diluted valuation. Its most useful observation for founders: none of the tokens trading above their listing price had launched with an FDV of $1 billion or more.<\/p>\n
<\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b><\/b>CryptoRank<\/b>, publishing on 21 July 2026, looked at the 113 tokens launched between 2024 and 2026 that reached a market capitalisation above $100 million. It found 93% trading below their TGE price, and eight of the 113 above breakeven. That sample already excludes tokens that never reached $100 million, so it is, if anything, a flattering one.<\/p>\n
CoinGecko\u2019s Spot CEX Report 2026<\/b>, updated 9 April 2026, tracked new listings on major centralised exchanges since 1 January 2025. An average of 32% of new listings recorded positive price action immediately after listing across the top twelve venues, 25% were still in the green after 30 to 59 days, and by twelve months fewer than 10% of listed tokens on most top exchanges were above their initial listing price.<\/p>\n
At the far end of the distribution, CoinGecko\u2019s research on dead coins<\/b>, updated 17 April 2026, found that 53.2% of all tokens tracked on GeckoTerminal since 2021 have failed, meaning they stopped trading. 2025 alone accounted for 11.6 million failures, 86.3% of all failures recorded between 2021 and 2025, most of them launchpad memecoins.<\/p>\n
\n\n
\n
\n
Study<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
Sample<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
Reference point<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
Finding<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
\n
Memento Research (Dec 2025)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
118 TGEs in 2025<\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
TGE valuation<\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
84.7% below; median FDV down 71%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
\n
CryptoRank (Jul 2026)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
113 tokens from 2024 to 2026 that reached $100M<\/p>\n<\/td>\n
New listings on top 12 CEXs since Jan 2025<\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
Listing price<\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
25% green after 30 to 59 days; under 10% above at 12 months on most venues<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
\n
Keyrock (2024 airdrops)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
62 airdrops on six chains<\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
Airdrop price<\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
8 of 62 positive after 90 days<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\n
\n
TDMM (Oct 2026)<\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
423 Gate listings since Jan 2025<\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
Listing-day close<\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
18.9% above at day 90; 10.6% at day 365<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n
The question for a founder is not whether the base rate is bad. It is why, and which of those reasons a team controls.<\/p>\n
What TDMM\u2019s data shows: 423 new listings, day by day<\/b><\/h2>\n
TDMM analysed every token that began trading on Gate between 1 January 2025 and 2 September 2026 and was still listed on 2 October 2026: 423 tokens after removing tokenised stocks, leveraged tokens and stablecoins. Gate is useful for this because it lists a very large number of new tokens, usually at or close to TGE, and its public API returns each pair\u2019s first trading day. The reference price is the close on the first day of trading, which avoids the noise of opening auctions; using the day-1 or day-3 close instead moves the day-90 share above by under two points.<\/p>\n
Two caveats run through every number below. First, survivorship: delisted pairs do not appear in Gate\u2019s API, so tokens that failed completely are missing and the real figures are worse. Second, for a minority of tokens the first Gate trading day is later than the TGE. Neither caveat flatters the conclusion.<\/p>\n
The median new token loses more than half its value in 90 days<\/b><\/h2>\n
The median path of a 2025-26 listing. Source: TDMM analysis of Gate public daily candles to 2 October 2026.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
The median token closed 14.8% below its listing-day close after one week, 35.2% below after 30 days, 55.5% below after 90 days and 68.2% below after 180 days. Even the 75th percentile, the better quarter of the cohort, was below its listing price by day 90. The shape matters more than the level: there is no recovery phase in the median path, only a steep first month and a slower decline after it.<\/p>\n
Fewer than one in five holds its listing price after 90 days<\/b><\/h2>\n
Share of tokens above the listing-day close, and share beating Bitcoin over the same window. Source: TDMM.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\n\n
\n
\n
Days after listing<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
Tokens measured<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
Above listing-day close<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
Median change<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
Beat Bitcoin over the same days<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n
\n
Down more than 50%<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
The Bitcoin column answers the obvious objection, that 2025 and 2026 were hard years for altcoins. They were, and the market tide shows up clearly when the cohort is split by listing quarter: tokens listed in the second quarter of 2025, when Bitcoin rose about 14% over the following 90 days, held their price 32.8% of the time; tokens listed in the first quarter of 2026 managed 11.4%. But fewer than one in five new tokens beat Bitcoin over 90 days in any case. A weak market makes post-TGE failure more likely. It does not explain it.<\/p>\n
The volume cliff: liquidity planned for day one runs out<\/b><\/h3>\n
Median daily volume against listing-day volume. Source: TDMM.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
Listing day is the busiest day most tokens will ever have. Median daily volume was 55.5% of listing-day volume by day 7, 40.8% by day 14, 16.4% by day 30 and 8.8% by day 90. This is the single most underplanned fact in token launches. Teams budget market making, exchange fees and marketing around listing day, then meet days 8 to 90 with a market trading one tenth of the volume and the same, or less, depth. In a market that thin, an airdrop recipient selling $20,000 or an unlock tranche hitting one exchange moves the price far more than it would have on day one.<\/p>\n
![\"Nine](\"https:\/\/tdmm.io\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/01-why-token-launches-fail-numbers-300x169.png\")
![\"Horizontal](\"https:\/\/tdmm.io\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/02-post-tge-failure-rate-studies-300x169.png\")
![\"Line](\"https:\/\/tdmm.io\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/03-post-tge-price-path-300x169.png\")
![\"Grouped](\"https:\/\/tdmm.io\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/04-share-above-listing-price-by-day-300x169.png\")
![\"Area](\"https:\/\/tdmm.io\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/05-post-tge-volume-cliff-300x169.png\")
![\"Bar](\"https:\/\/tdmm.io\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/06-when-new-tokens-peak-300x169.png\")
![\"Grouped](\"https:\/\/tdmm.io\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/07-first-week-decides-300x169.png\")
![\"Bar](\"https:\/\/tdmm.io\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/08-launch-fdv-vs-post-tge-performance-300x169.png\")
![\"Bar](\"https:\/\/tdmm.io\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/09-post-tge-order-book-depth-300x169.png\")
![\"Framework](\"https:\/\/tdmm.io\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/10-seven-reasons-token-launches-fail-after-tge-300x169.png\")
![\"Table](\"https:\/\/tdmm.io\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/11-post-tge-case-studies-300x169.png\")
![\"Comparison](\"https:\/\/tdmm.io\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/12-failing-vs-surviving-token-launch-300x169.png\")
![\"Five-stage](\"https:\/\/tdmm.io\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/13-post-tge-playbook-timeline-300x169.png\")
![\"Table](\"https:\/\/tdmm.io\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/14-post-tge-market-maker-kpis-by-tier-300x169.png\")
![\"TDMM](\"https:\/\/tdmm.io\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/15-tdmm-token-launch-market-making-coverage-300x169.png\")
![\"Comparison](\"https:\/\/tdmm.io\/insights\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/16-token-launch-market-maker-compared-300x169.png\")